海洋科学学术讲座预告第491期：Indian Summer Monsoon in Present and Future Projections: CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble Approach

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations are analyzed with a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach to study the Indian summer monsoon features. The CMIP6 models are identified based on Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and post hoc tests. The results highlight the potential of ANOVA and post hoc tests as a practical approach to enhancing the accuracy of MME rainfall for the assessment of model projections. The performance of low level jet and vertical wind shear over the region (48°– 68°E, 6°–16°N) and its association with ISMR reveals that the LLJ index exhibits pronounced interannual variability, with stronger jets linked to enhanced monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Both ERA5 and CMIP6 MME mimic the LLJ's spatial structure and seasonal mean pattern, whereas ERA5 depicts stronger jet core. Further Discussed projected mean rainfall, variability, and categorized monsoon extremes using six skill-selected CMIP6 models (BCC-CSM2-MR, CMCC-CM2-SR5, FIO-ESM-2-0, MCM-UA-1-0, MIROC6, TaiESM1) evaluated against the high-resolution IMD 0.25° dataset.